Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
